The Stinger Report: What?
I’ve written about The Stinger Report before; well, sort of. This is different though. Now they’re writing about something I actually care about. The newest Report concerns EXER-GAMES, something which includes music games as a subset (the only subset which concerns me).
I’ve noticed a trend from reading this publication. It has a tendency to contain statements that aren’t of any trade value. Often these are wrong. In an earlier Report it segwayed from a discussion of arcade layoffs and closures to a brief history of economic dowturn and catastrophe. This served seemingly no purpose except to remind less astute readers of the relationship between the economy and trade. I never considered the possibility of a demarcation between the two before, so thank you The Stinger Report! You’ve managed to confuse and upset me!
Economics is easily the single most misunderstood subject of all time (not to be confused with the least understood subject, which would likely be math). It is nearly tied with Physics in this regard, but manages to barely edge it out. Common people only misunderstand physics on occasions when it suits a sophistical worldview. Alternatively, the common political opinion will always misunderstand economics. Given that, it’s unsurprising that The Stinger Report would have its failures in this department as well.
To bring it back to EXER-GAMES, the latest iteration of the online newspaper informs me of the competition they have engendered between some vague entity (ostensibly schools, arcades, and health concerns such as rehab centers) and Fitness Centers. It goes so far as to claim that these games will “[erode] … the monopoly of the gym industry on sculpting the health and fitness of the public.”
A most confusing claim, as the existence of school fitness programs and rehab centers predates the invention of the first EXER-GAME by some years. Then a mere paragraph later, a fitness center is mentioned for their own use of EXER-GAMES. This doesn’t exactly help the cogency of the narrative.
Disregarding that mess, here are some words. They concern, apparently, dance games.
‘Dancemats: Game2Move’
‘XerDance’
‘Positive Gaming iDANCE Multiplayer System’
‘Cyber-Coach’
These are all Dance Games purported to be under development or in production. What this effectively means is that we have a variety of companies producing shovelware to cash in on the EXER-GAME market. I will speak my piece on this in three parts: a history, an analysis of current market conditions, and a conclusion. It will likely be more substantive than what The Stinger Report has done in this area.
When ITG first hit the market in 2004, it was a fan reaction to the absense of a new release. Konami had failed to produce a new arcade version of DDR for some time. As fans, the producers of ITG were closely in touch with the market for the game. Enough so that they could accurately gauge demand. Sure enough, the game found its market and off it went, racing along until a fully developed ITG3 was sued off the market. This despite the existence of another succesful dance game, Andamiro’s Pump it Up series. Even when ITG was in full swing, other projects were attempted but ultimately discarded because development of a sufficiently competitive product proved unfeasible. Most notably DanceTrax, which promised to offer a superior product by forever removing pad errors from dance gaming. It could not develop its optical sensor concept sufficiently to deliver on this promise, and ultimately fell by the wayside.
Cue 2009. We now have a number of companies developing concepts for a limited market, based on a much less accurate conception of demand. With the exception of iDance, none of these products seem to have any talent involved in their production. All of them are aimed at what appears to be the same exact market, a collection of schools, hospitals and health centers. The notion of selling these to fitness centers has limited precedent, the most noteworthy example being the one provided by the report, wherein the game was developed by the fitness center themselves as part of their concept.
To put it bluntly, most of these games will be dead within two years. Those venues which will make EXER-GAME purchases have a plenitude of options to choose from and a limited demand. Either they will standardize, which will prove bad for the odd men out, or they will purchase indiscriminately which spells out possible ruin for the entire endeavor. I don’t know the long term game plan of any of these companies. I’m having trouble not picturing a market which is immediately satiated, proving the concept unsustainable for a good portion of the competitors entering the field.
The ironic thing is, if Konami had not sued ITG out of existence then it seems unlikely that three large, established EXER-GAME producers would have permitted any intrusion into the market, even in such previously undeveloped niches as those currently being targeted. From memory I can state that products targeted to these niches had been developed previously by Konami at the very least. It would not have been difficult for them to make use of brand recognition and an existing template for production to quickly establish a strong foothold.
I look forward to the impending collapse of the EXER-GAME bubble, an event which I think has been exacerbated by uninformed speculation, and a distortion of priorities and disincentives brought about by “The claims of imminent legal action [growing] cold” (as well as the previous effects of legal action themselves). It isn’t a bubble in the proper sense, but The Stinger Report also isn’t a trade publication in the proper sense. Nevertheless, when this bubble pops I expect to hear “industry insiders” adorably shake their heads, lamenting that EXER-GAMING was just a temporal phenomenon, another fad. Then I’ll go back to playing Pump it Up.
Best of luck to iDance.
well kilroy (or whatever your real name is) thank you for your publicity of our e-news service.
I have a few questions though – you spend two paragraphs claiming we have made statements that are wrong – but you do not give any examples?? You also claim that “…seemingly no purpose except to remind less astute readers of the relationship between the economy and trade…” and you state this has no interest!!!?
You also state that previous issues have not concerned you – so again I question your ability to comment on their accuracy – even though you did not reveal where these inaccuracies were?
You state ‘failure’ but hide what this means – what failure? what issues? Please Kilroy be clear in your critique?…
First of all I would like to thank you for responding to this. I did neglect to give any examples. I can provide them now. In “StayCation – Our Defense Against the Crunch?” (#678), you attempted “to construct a comparative time-line of recent economic depression – their cause, cure, and the influence they have had on the amusement industry”. This is the principle document I have taken issue with. You describe the etiology of The Great Depression as a result of irresponsible speculatory practices, an assessment that simply doesn’t hold up when subjected to a Monetarist analysis. Much of the rest of your analysis in this issue is suspect, particularly involving the Oil Crisis. If you would like a cursory overview of the subject, complete with figures, you can turn to Milton Friedman’s Free To Choose. This is a wonderful introduction to economic thought.
The issue is that in addition to the falseness of your analysis, it is also immaterial. The particular cause of a full scale economic downturn is unlikely to change the effects it has on business.
…Kilroy, looking at your comments on our past ExerGaming feature you seem to have made some pedestrian errors. When we report on the market we only covered the interactive video fitness systems (exergaming) this was not a report on the history of the fitness sector, which makes me question your criticism.
Other errots include claiming that ITG had not been sued by Konami; also the incorrect break down of the BEMANI DDR situation, missing out Roxor and Andamiro – while also avoiding the whole argument of what is a game and what is exergaming. Though I wonder if there is a vested interest here, your limited expereince missed out the whole Konami fitness chain operation in Japan that uses exergaming since 2006!!!!!
I think it would have been better not to criticism a piece like this inaccurately, but to have given your observations separate for reader comparison.
As one of the first sites to reveal the Exergaming thread (with our 2002 feature that broke the term). It is a shame that a 15-year old popular service like the Stinger Report has to field such inaccurate observations and snide remarks – I wonder when you generate the same subscription base and syndicated by the industry you will think yourself as a trade publication!!!
You do have a point here. The ExerGaming market you are describing is almost fundamentally different from the market previous fitness products have been aimed at. In that capacity I suppose the history I gave is just as immaterial as the one you did. The general arguments I’m giving are as follows.
* The ExerGaming market is not directly competitive with other fitness markets.
* The ExerGaming concept is a reworking of previous fitness game concepts. Given this, companies with an established fitness game record have a variety of resources to draw on which competitors lack.
* The ExerGaming market is a new market to be developed. Hence demand cannot be gauged as effectively for it as for previous fitness game companies, who entered established markets and had access to various forms of consumer feedback.
I think you may have misread me. I state quite clearly that ITG had been sued by Konami. ITG was produced by Roxor games. I apologize if I failed to make that known, but when I spoke of ITG it was intended to reference the company by proxy. I also mention Andamiro, albeit only briefly. I apologize for any inconveniences I may have caused by touching on subjects in such a cursory fashion.
What a game is and what ExerGaming is don’t concern me profoundly. The issue is how many of the products being developed under this label will actually find a market. I made an allusion to Konami’s ExerGames experience when I stated
“From memory I can state that products targeted to these niches had been developed previously by Konami at the very least.”
However, it is reasonable that such a brief and indirect reference would cause confusion. Again, I apologize for any inconveniences I may have caused by touching on subjects in such a cursory fashion.
I am not writing a trade publication, I am writing a personal blog. Whether or not it finds a readership is not the principal concern. You suggest a vested interest. My interest is as a consumer, an individual who reads economics, and a gamer (specifically, a competitive music gamer). Your observations struck me as both immaterial and incorrect. Criticism is something that established publications have to deal with. You should be honored to receive criticism. It demonstrates that people care what you think!
Again, thank you for responding. I apologize if you found the tone of the article distasteful. I mean you no ill will and hope you can permit me the occasional rhetorical flourish.
Thank you for the reply – I am surprised by your issue with the Great Depression comments – as most historians use the 1929 stock market collapse as their starting point of the depression – those who cover the subject use the term ’stock market crash through long-term trading irregularities’ [an example from Galbraith, John Kenneth, The Great Crash, 1929 (1954)] To claim that using a universal term as a failing of the Stinger smacks more of looking for fault rather than serious issues. Again you do not point to examples the prove your statement that the Stinger is “Often these are wrong”. More that you personally disagree with our summation and so claim it is wrong – that is a flawed thinking process and you need to evaluate your values, and should not throw mud.
I am aware that the description you provided is the most common narrative account of the Depression. Given this, your oversight is by no means unforgivable. It did however seem noteworthy that a trade publication should comment on economics and appear to be mistaken. Once again, a document which offers an introductory overview of the entire situation is Milton Friedman’s Free To Choose. It contains empirical data, coupled with analysis that ties the Great Depression very neatly to failed monetary policy on the part of the Federal Reserve. If you would like, I can try to locate this data elsewhere and submit it directly for your inspection.
I am interested in your comments about Exergaming – I would love to spend the time on contradicting the major flaws in your comments – but am busy writing a report on the recent Disney incident, so am out of the loop. What I suggest is you re-affirm your comments above at the forum for the Interactive Fitness and Exer-Gaming Network group (which we are a member of) [http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=1895278] Your views will get a lively response from experts in the field.
Finally Kilroy, I want to clarify my statement above – I hit the return before I finished – I wanted to say, because of touching on subjects in such a cursory fashion against the work we do at the Stinger, it may look like you are unfairly throwing mud. I appreciate your views, and as I first said I also appreciate the publicity you have given us.
Have a good one.